El Nino update January 1998

UPDATE ON THE 1997-1998 EL NIÑO PHENOMENON, GALAPAGOS, JANUARY 1998

Current situation

In October of 1997, the Charles Darwin Research Station issued a report on the situation of the El Niño event in the Galápagos Islands. After watching the development of the phenomenon during the last two months, we have considered it necessary to present an update to that report, in order to keep the global community informed about what is happening on the archipelago.

1. November of 1997 has definitely been the month when the rains started, as was forecast by most meteorologists.
   From rainfall data gathered, we have noticed that in the El Niño year of 1982 there was also a sharp increase of precipitation during the last trimester. Essentially, the rainfall and temperature now are similar to a typical rainy season, which normally would not start until around February. Conditions have been variable, with hot, sunny weather alternating with sometimes heavy (but still warm) rain.
2. The current relevant measurements at the Charles Darwin Research Station in Puerto Ayora are as follows:

3. The figures for December show a sharp increase in temperature and rainfall compared to the month of November. As a matter of fact, one of the research camps located on Española Island, on the southernmost tip of the archipelago, reported 204 mm of rainfall during December 13 and 14.
4. Reports provided by boat captains and naturalist guides indicate that the strong winds that were predominant until September have subsided. Apparently, sea conditions have generally improved, with calm, clear waters being reported all over the archipelago. However, some rough spots are encountered especially in the northern sector of the islands.
5. Terrestrial flora and fauna appear to be flourishing with the plentiful rainfall, with abundant vegetation and food for land birds and reptiles. In southern Isabela, tortoise nesting was very limited, but in December several new nests had been reported.
6. There have been scattered, mostly verbal reports about the current situation of the marine and marine-dependent fauna:

• The distribution of sea lions and fur seals around the archipelago is abnormal. For example, fur seals have been spotted in places where they usually are absent, like Punta Suárez on Española Island, whereas sea lions are scarce in some of their favorite beaches.
• The distribution of seabirds, notably boobies, has also been affected. There is no evidence of significant mortality for any species, but there has been very little successful breeding. For example, reproduction of waved albatrosses, penguins and cormorants has failed this year. Boobies have fared better.
• Hammerhead sharks have disappeared from their normal ranges, and have been found at unusual depths; this is probably due to altered water temperatures in their usual habitat. Divers have also reported changes in composition of fish population, with some species becoming more abundant and others less so, but no firm data are available.
• A recent monitoring trip to the west of the archipelago reported that green algae are diminishing in abundance, whilst red algae are increasing. This may be affecting marine iguanas; there have been recent reports of dead iguanas slightly above normal mortality rate in certain locations. S
• Sea turtles are abundant in the archipelago, as is normal for this time of the year, which is their egg-laying and mating season.

7. Effects on human settlements are already visible. Towns located in the highlands of Santa Cruz and San Cristóbal islands have been affected by heavy rain. However, due to the improved road and drainage systems that were built during recent years, the consequences of these rains have been minor. Fortunately, the Army Engineer Corps was working in Galapagos as the rains set in, so a large amount of heavy equipment is available to repair any damage to the road system.
So far, no major problems have been registered with the flights to and from the mainland. Delays have sometimes occurred, mainly because of problems with the weather on the mainland.

8. There have been no problems that we know of related to tourism operations. As mentioned before, the strong winds have ceased, and less wind generally means calmer seas. Passengers that have been randomly interviewed during recent weeks have generally expressed their satisfaction with their trips, noting that it has been raining but that this is a minor inconvenience. The clear, warm waters have been favorable for snorkeling.

Revised conclusions and projections

9. The Station issued four conclusions in its past report. Below, we are updating these statements in the light of the new data.

The Galápagos islands are experiencing the visible effects of an El Niño event since the middle of 1997. The environmental conditions are not typical for this time of the year, and the stable conditions observed during the third quarter of 1997 have been followed by the onset of hot, rainy weather. So far, the ecological consequences have been most obvious on land with the abundant plant life. Marine flora and fauna are also changing in abundance and distribution. Hard data on the ecological effects are scarce; we have to rely largely on individual observations. However, we consider that current conditions for tourism, although uncomfortable due to the increased rain, still allow for a unique wildlife experience. For visitors interested in ecology, the chance to observe first-hand the effects of El Niño may itself be of interest.

Most meteorologists predict that the hot, rainy conditions may intensify in the first part of 1998 and will be maintained through to April or May. The Charles Darwin Research Station will continue to measure rainfall and temperature but is not in a position to confirm or reject the meteorologists' forecasts.

If the El Niño event reaches the intensity and duration that have been forecast, the Galápagos islands are likely to experience intense ecological impacts. These impacts favor some species and are detrimental to others. The experience of the 1982-83 El Niño indicates that animals and birds dependent on the sea will be the worst affected. However, it should be cautioned that the history of this year's event has not been identical to that of 1982-83, so the consequences may also be different.

From the point of view of long-term conservation, the greatest concern is that El Niño will facilitate the establishment and spread of species alien to Galápagos, causing permanent ecological change.

In addition to these changes in the ecosystem, the El Niño of 1982-83 caused problems for the local communities, with regard to sanitation, transportation and basic services. This year it seems that improvements in the overall conditions of human settlements and road systems have prevented the onset of major problems. Further observation is necessary, though, if rainfall keeps increasing as predicted. Most tourism takes place out in the uninhabited islands, so it is not affected by these problems.

A series of precautionary measures, described in the earlier report, have been implemented to counter the effects of what apparently is becoming a very intense El Niño event. So far, we consider that these measures have been successful.